Pakistan: Fears of widespread drought

A severe drought is likely in Pakistan in the coming months, weather experts at the national meteorological department in the capital, Islamabad, warned on Monday, with reservoir levels in some areas already dangerously low after a dry winter and little rain expected in the next two months.

"Moderate drought conditions have already developed in Balochistan and lower Sindh [provinces], which are likely to worsen in the coming months with the possibility of spreading to other parts of the country," Dr Qamar-uz-Zaman Chaudhry, head of the meteorological department, said.

Pakistan received 40 percent less rainfall last winter than average levels, while snowfall in many northern areas was also 20-25 percent below normal, according to the weather office.

"This indicates the likelihood of a severe water shortage in the country during the next few months," Chaudhry noted.

At present, Pakistan is classed as a "water-stressed" nation, having about 1,200 cubic metres of water per capita for a population of over 160 million. A combination of factors, including a natural water shortage, high population growth and inappropriate management, is adding to the country's severe water crisis.

If drought comes, provincial irrigation departments would have a hard time achieving sowing targets for cotton, sugarcane and rice in these hot and dry conditions. At the same time, it would also adversely affect livestock, horticulture and human lives throughout the country, say experts.

"Cotton sowing, which is in progress, has faced a near 35 percent water shortage [this season] due to the ongoing dry spell since February, and it has also brought the summer season on early," said Muhammad Khalid Idrees Rana, a research officer at the country's leading water regulatory authority, Indus River System Authority (IRSA), based in Islamabad.

Experts are stressing the weather will always be unpredictable and that better use of existing water needs to be explored. "Only efficient management of available water resources at field, household and institutional level can avert the emerging drought crisis," Dr Ghulam Rasool, agricultural researcher at the meteorological centre said.

Over 2 million people, mostly from the southern provinces of Sindh and Balochistan, were affected by severe drought in Pakistan from 1998 to 2001.

IRIN

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