OneWorld.net (U.S.)

Sea levels could rise nearly five feet (1.5 metres) by the end of this century, a great deal more than previously predicted, according to new research out of Britain.© WWF

Tens of millions of people could be displaced by the rise in ocean levels as a result of melting glaciers, disappearing ice sheets and warming water.

Presented at a European Geosciences Union conference in Vienna, Austria, earlier this month, the research forecasts a rise in sea levels three times higher than that predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2007.

Svetlana Jevrejeva of the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory in Britain said the estimate was based on a new model allowing accurate reconstruction of sea levels over the past 2,000 years.

“For the past 2,000 years, the sea level was very stable,” she told journalists on the sidelines of the Vienna meeting.

But the pace at which sea levels are rising is accelerating, and they will be 0.8-1.5 metres higher by the next century, a statement revealed. Sea levels rose 2 cm in the 18th century, 6 cm in the 19th century and 19 cm last century, Jevrejeva said, adding: “It seems that the rapid rise in the 20th century is from melting ice sheets.”

Scientists are involved in a fierce debate about how much sea levels will rise, with the IPCC predicting increases of between 18 cm and 59 cm. “The IPCC numbers are underestimates,” says Simon Holgate, also of the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory.

Researchers said the IPCC had not accounted for ice dynamics – the more rapid movement of ice sheets due to melt water, which could markedly speed up their disappearance and increase sea levels.

This effect is set to generate around one-third of future increases in sea levels, according to Steve Nerem of the University of Colorado in the United States.

“There is a lot of evidence out there that we will see (a rise of) around 1 metre in 2100,” says Nerem, adding that the rise will not be uniform around the globe and that more research was needed to determine the effects on single regions.

Although scientists are debating the levels, though, they all agree that developing nations in Africa and Asia, that lack the infrastructural means to build up flood defences, will be the hardest hit. These include countries like Bangladesh, almost all of whose land surface is within a metre of current sea levels.

“If (the sea level) rises by 1 metre, 72 million Chinese people will be displaced, and 10% of the Vietnamese population,” said Jevrejeva.

The story has been collated from Reuters and UN News.

Source: Infochange