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Assessing the climate change impact on Indian economy

Mar 26, 2011

The report “Climate Change and India: A 4X4 Assessment A sectoral and regional analysis for 2030s”, has been prepared by the Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment (INCCA). The report assesses the impact of climate change projections for 2030s on key areas of Indian Economy in the vulnerable regions.


Climate Change and India: A 4X4 Assessment. A sectoral and regional analysis for 2030s 

Published by: Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment (INCCA)

This report provides an assessment of impact of climate change in 2030s on four key sectors of the Indian economy, namely Agriculture, Water, Natural Ecosystems & Biodiversity and Health in four climate sensitive regions of India, namely the  Himalayan region, the Western Ghats, the Coastal Area and the North-East Region. It is for the first time that such a comprehensive, long term assessment has been undertaken based on rigorous scientific analysis. It is also for the first time that an assessment has been made for the 2030s.

No country in the world is as vulnerable, on so many dimensions, to climate change as India. Whether it is the long coastline of 7000 kms, the Himalayas with their vast glaciers, the almost 70million hectares of forests (which incidentally house almost all of our key mineral reserves) – India is exposed to climate change on multiple fronts. Rigorous science based assessments are therefore critical in designing our adaptation strategies.

Salient findings

Temperature: Simulations for the 2030s indicate an all-round warming, associated with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, over the Indian subcontinent. The rise in annual mean surface air temperature by the 2030s ranges from 1.7°C to 2.0°C.

Cyclones: Observations since 1986 indicate a decreasing frequency in cyclones along the eastern coast surrounded by the Bay of Bengal and the Northern Indian Ocean. Also, no trend is seen in the western coast – along the Arabian Sea – for the same period. The projected number of cyclonic disturbances along both the coasts in the 2030s is likely to decrease with respect to the 1970s. However, cyclonic systems might be more intense in the future.

Storm surges: Storm surge return periods could only be estimated on a 100-year time scale. All locations along the eastern coast of India that are north of Vishakhapatnam, except at Sagar and Kolkata, show an increase in storm surge levels in the 100-year return period by about 15% to 20% with respect to the 1970s.

The sea level along the Indian coast has been rising at the rate of about 1.3mm/year on an average.

It has been concluded that the forest vegetation types in the four eco-sensitive regions are vulnerable to projected climate change in the short term, that is, in the 2030s, even under a moderate climate change scenario

Source : MoEF, GoI
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