India may receive below normal monsoon this year
India’s Meteorological Department has revised its forecast saying that the country is expected to receive below normal monsoon this year. However, scientists and Planning Commission have allayed the fears of adverse impact on agriculture and economy.
New Delhi: Weather scientists today asked the country to brace itself for a below-normal monsoon, raising the possibility that India’s breadbasket states in the northwest could face a meteorological drought.
- Rain in Kerala/ Photo credit: Travel.webshots.com
But agricultural scientists held out some hope, saying the impact on crops would depend on the rainfall distribution over the next three months.
The India Meteorological Department has said rainfall across all of India is likely to be 93%, or below normal, of the long period average, revising its April forecast that had predicted a near-normal 96% rainfall.
The revised forecast relies on six weather conditions, among which four are currently unfavourable for the 2009 monsoon, said Damodar Shivanandan Pai, director of the IMD’s long range forecasting division in Pune.
The new forecast has also thrown up predictions of 81% rain in northern and western states and 92% rain in eastern and northeastern states. Rainfall below 90% of normal is classified as a meteorological drought. The last drought in the country was in 2002.
Scientists pointed out that meteorological drought was different from agricultural drought which would depend on the level of moisture stress that plants in a region would experience. This would in turn depend on the availability of water.
Agrometeorological scientists said 81% of normal rainfall could theoretically affect rice yields in Punjab, Haryana, Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh, although the exact impact would depend on the period and duration of dry spells. The Planning Commission tried to allay fears of adverse impact on the economy.
“Much of northwestern India is irrigated, and those who can successfully irrigate crops are unlikely to be affected much. But not every farmer is in a position to provide irrigation,” said Kamlesh Kumar Singh, an agricultural scientist at the IMD.
The IMD has also predicted that July would receive 93% of normal rain and August would get 101%. Computational forecasts suggest that atmospheric conditions would lead to a normal rainfall in the northwest during the first fortnight of July.
“We do not expect (rice) sowing operations to be affected, but if a dry spell lasts more than 15 days during the vegetative stage of the plant growth, you could expect some impact,” said Singh.
Singh said how the rainfall is distributed over the next three months would determine its impact on crops.
“A 92% rainfall for eastern and northeastern states is unlikely to have any impact (on crops) if it comes when it is needed,” he said.
Crops such as maize and pulses are not likely to be affected much, he added. The forecast of 99% rainfall in central India and 93% in the southern states suggests that any rain-bearing low pressure zones that form in the Bay of Bengal are likely to move west, instead of moving northwest.
Scientists said sea surface temperatures over a region of the Pacific Ocean appear to be rising – a phenomenon called El Nino – which has in previous years been linked to a poor rainfall. Both observations as well as forecasts suggest that there is a high probability (60%) for El Nino conditions to appear during the monsoon season. India has never had excess rainfall during an El Nino year, Pai said.
“This forecast is based on the physics of the atmosphere. Its implications would have to be analysed by appropriate ministries,” said Prithviraj Chavan, minister for science and technology and earth sciences, who formally released the revised forecast.
Scientists believe cyclone Aila which had struck Bengal in May contributed to the poor performance of the monsoon during June. “The cyclone took away the entire energy from the monsoon,” said Pai. “It’s like taking away a bank balance.”
“We had similar situations in 1982, 1987 and in 1991 – cyclones in May adversely affected the monsoon in June,” Pai said. The monsoon performed poorly in 1982 and in 1987, but 1991 had a normal monsoon.
At an average 11,430 mm, Cherrapunjee and adjoining Mawsynram in Meghalaya receives the world’s highest rainfall. This monsoon, however, these ‘rain-magnets’ are nowhere near half that mark.
Meghalaya is the reason why the North-East is India’s wettest zone. But ever since the monsoon officially set in on May 25, the region (minus Sikkim) has received 46% less rainfall. Meghalaya leads the table with a whopping 76% deficit.
“This monsoon has started on a very disturbing note,” said regional director of Regional Meteorological Centre Deva Kanta Handique. “Like Meghalaya, Nagaland has received 56% less rainfall up to June 23. Manipur, Mizoram, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Tripura follow with 46, 44, 36, 35 and 27% deficit respectively.”
Farmers in the hill states, dependent on rain for their terrace or slope farm, have been hit hard. In the plains of Assam, drought-like conditions have affected paddy cultivation.
“This is the kathiapora (sowing season) requiring ample rainfall, but fields in the prime rice belts are lying barren,” said Bhaben Kalita of a self-help farming group in western Assam’s Rangiya subdivision.
The Assam government has taken a few measures to combat the crisis. “We have decided to provide diesel worth Rs 6 crore to farmers in drought-hit areas so that they can run generators to draw water for their fields. This is being worked out with the Irrigation Department,” said Assam Agriculture Minister Pramila Rani Brahma.
Bearing the brunt of this low-rain situation are the state electricity boards. The normally power-surplus Meghalaya has resorted to abnormal power cuts to be able to sell enough electricity to adjoining states for revenue generation. The Umiam reservoir, the State’s main source of electricity, has almost bottomed out to deepen the crisis.
Assam, the most industrialised among the seven northeastern states, has been the hardest hit. “We can do nothing about the unprecedented power crisis if the rainless climate continues,” said Assam State Electricity Board chairman Anil K Sachan. “Because of humidity, peak hour demand has crossed 900MW, but we have been able to provide only 750MW.”
Deficit rainfall has affected generation of ASEB’s 250MW Kopili hydropower project. Drastic reduction in water level has resulted in North East Electric Power Corporation Ltd’s Ranganadi (in Lower Subansiri district of Arunachal Pradesh) producing only 193 million units from March to May as compared to 282 million units during the same period in 2008.
The installed capacity of Ranganadi is 400MW and Assam gets 200MW of this under normal circumstances.
